Why Elections May Not Hold January 2011

Written by Idowu Samuel, Leon Usigbe and Christian Okeke, Abuja Saturday, 24 July 2010


Indications have started emerging that the 2011 general elections upon which different permutations are banked may not hold as earlier scheduled by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).







Saturday Tribune can reveal that the pressure being mounted on President Goodluck Jonathan by different groups and individuals to feature in the next election will necessitate the postponement of the elections from the original dates tentatively set by INEC.



Investigations have revealed that since it had taken Jonathan a considerable period of time to make up his mind on whether or not he would contest the presidential election in 2011, members of his think-tank are of the view that should he announce interest to contest the election now, the short time frame available to him may not make him to have a headway.



There have been groups who had secretly canvassed to the president for postponement of the election on the basis that he needs sufficient time to prepare for the elections, most especially the nationwide presidential campaign, since it is becoming glaring that he will eventually throw his hat in the ring for the election.



What fuelled the suspicion on possible postponement of the election was the state of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which financial status was considered too lean to prosecute the next presidential campaign.



At the moment, the PDP is yet to draw a plan for the next presidential election despite having presidential aspirants in place, notwithstanding that the election period is almost six months away, if the January date tentatively set by INEC is anything to go by.



It was learnt, however, that the lack of consensus among the governors of PDP on whether to suppport Jonathan for the presidential election or not was one of the strong reasons the president has been hesitating on declaring his ambition, since the governors are expected to play prominent roles in his emergence if he contested.



Some of the state governors were said to have been nursing veiled grievances with Jonathan, and hence, may sabotage his efforts to be president at the most crucial time, moreso as the Presidency and PDP are yet to come to terms on the issue of zoning of political offices for the next general elections.



The poor preparations by INEC, further investigations revealed, has been one of the strongest factors likely to necessitate the postponement of the election, as INEC came out during the week to state that correct voters’ register was not in place for the election.



More importantly, the United States, it was learnt, has not been at peace with the slow pace of preparations for the next elections in Nigeria, and hence may have given a tacit approval for postponement of the election on the basis that the electoral body in the country would need to get its acts right in providing credible voters register for the elections.



The United States had repeatedly deployed its top officials to Nigeria to network with the government and civil society groups on the conduct of the coming elections which it has been insisting must be free and fair.



In a related development, the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) and 15 civil society organisations have written to the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Attahiru Jega, demanding for the postponement of the general elections scheduled for January 2011.



Saturday Tribune learnt that the group, which met with the INEC leadership in Abuja on Friday, raised fears about the ability of the country to have a credible election in January because of the obvious constraints faced by the electoral body.



The letter presented to Jega which was obtained by Saturday Tribune stated: “considering the critical importance of a fresh Voters’ Register to the conduct of credible, free and fair election in Nigeria, the forthcoming elections should hold in April 2011.



“In this regard, we demand that the amended Section 76(1) & (2) of the constitution which now provides that elections must hold between 120 to 150 days to the expiration of the tenure of the incumbent political office holders, should be deferred to take effect from 2015.



Meanwhile, following the alleged massive sham that greeted the recent recruitment exercise at the INEC coupled with its ongoing internal reform, the commission has announced the cancellation of the recruitment exercise carried out by the commission under Prof Maurice Iwu.



The exercise affected 6,000 members of staff of the commission.



This came as the commission reassured that it will not make use of the 2007 defective voters’ register in the 2011 elections.



Jega made the disclosure in Abuja at the roundtable organised by the Coalition of Democrats for Electoral Reform (CODER) on Thursday.



The theme of the colloquium is: “Agenda for a Credible Election: Roadmap for new INEC.”



Jega, who was represented at the occasion by a national commissisoner, Prof Lai Olurode, restated that INEC was aware that there was no way to have election that would be free and credible with the current register.



He disclosed that the commission had under-studied the current register and found out that its credibility status was zero.



The INEC boss noted that funding and logistics posed what he termed enormous constraints to the commission, but pledged that one thing that was reassuring was that the 2011 polls must be transparent and credible.



Restating INEC’s commitment to break the jinx of manipulated election in the country, he said the commission was already taking concrete steps, including internal reform to enable it bark and bite where necessary.



Other steps, according to him, include dealing with fraudulent staff and dismissing them if the need be and ensuring that the commission does not interfere in internal issues of political parties unless when it has to do with enthroning internal democracy in the parties.